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Those who know me well, know that I often turn to quotes from ’80s and ’90s comedies, as the best way to express complex
thoughts in just a few words. In reading the introduction to
the First Quarter 2022 Snapshot Sentiment Report from the Society
of Industrial and Office Realtors (SIOR), I couldn’t help but
think of Rosie Perez’s character’s classic quote from White
Men Can’t Jump: “Sometimes when you win, you really lose,
and sometimes when you lose, you really win, and sometimes when you
win or lose, you actually tie, and sometimes when you tie, you
actually win or lose.” There are so many factors
influencing the real estate market generally, often with different
impacts in different sectors, that on any given day the same group
of real estate professionals might have wildly different opinions
on both the state of the market and likely near-term trends.
For example, the above-referenced report indicates that
industrial’s strong performance for the last year or so has now
resulted in a small drop in investor sentiment for that sector,
whereas the modest improvement in the office sector of late has
driven a noticeable increase in investor sentiment for that sector.
But, as an investor, when do you start betting based on
a trend in investor sentiment rather than a trend in historical
performance, as they start to diverge? It will be interesting
to see how that plays out in the coming months…
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